United Kingdom
This is the country page LEXUN can write honestly — and today it is the only one. Every figure below resolves to a named source: the bundled national datasets, or an outcome resolved through the public forecast register against a source named before the answer was known. Where the evidence stops, this page says so instead of changing the subject.
Current recorded conditions
From the world state — derived only from bundled evidence, content-versioned, refreshed only by a release. Static copy below is written by the release process; the live view re-reads the same file in your browser.
| Indicator | Value | Published / effective | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bank of England Bank Rate | 3.75% | 2025-12-18 | Bank of England |
| UK CPI annual inflation (12-month rate), as first published | 2.9% | 2026-08-19 | www.ons.gov.uk |
| UK headline unemployment rate, as first published | 4.9% | 2026-08-18 | www.ons.gov.uk |
| Registered company insolvencies, England and Wales, latest resolved month | 1,931 | 2026-08-18 | www.gov.uk |
Known information arrivals: 2026-09-17 — Bank of England MPC announcement (settles forecast 007) · 2026-11-05 — Bank of England MPC announcement (settles forecast 010). Each was named by an open register forecast before its outcome was known.
Figures are as first published; revisions do not change them here. A bundled snapshot can be stale between releases and says so rather than pretending to be live.
The four states of the world
Official past — what the record says happened. The table above: every figure resolves to a named official source, is stored as first published, and changes only when a release ships new evidence. Later revisions never overwrite it — what was believed at the time is itself part of the record.
Estimated present — deliberately absent. LEXUN runs zero live connectors, and the coverage registry is gated to say so. Between a stale snapshot that admits its date and a live-looking estimate nobody has validated, LEXUN ships the snapshot. A nowcast layer earns its place the way everything here does — by being scored against the official publication it tried to anticipate, in public — and none has yet.
Knowledge boundary — what LEXUN cannot see. The gaps are data too: the gap registry lists every known gap — no estimate of the present, no country beyond the UK, no city evidence, no research parameters, no calibration record, whole question classes refused, century-scale history not yet licensed — with why each exists, what it does to an answer, and what evidence closes it. Missing information is modelled as missing: it widens the uncertainty or refuses the question, and is never filled with confidence. The registry can never say “complete”.
Probabilistic future — many paths, never one. The open entries in the public register, each frozen with a sealed receipt before its outcome is knowable, and the simulations you run on the platform: thousands of paths with explicit uncertainty, not a single confident number. When reality arrives, the future state is scored against the official past — that loop is the product.
Keeping these four apart is the discipline: recorded fact, unvalidated estimate, admitted ignorance and simulated possibility are never blurred into one voice.
The historical record
Bank Rate, 1975–2025: the full official change history (258 observations, anchor-checked in the build) with time-in-band, episode and transition-count exhibits on the Accuracy Centre — counted frequencies with samples attached, explicitly refused as a transition matrix.
CPI yearly averages, 1989–2025: ONS series D7G7, bundled current-vintage-only and the file says so; the two-variable historical analogue panel shows which past years most resembled today — and why similarity is not repetition.
What the register has resolved here
Four UK figures have entered the record as scored outcomes — July CPI (2.9%, Brier 0.0121 in-band and 0.25 on the deliberately-uncertain direction call), the April–June unemployment rate (4.9%, 0.0100) and July company insolvencies (1,931, 0.0225) — and four forecasts stand open, resolving 15–17 September and early November 2026. Misses stay on the record with the hits: the full register, every entry with a permanent citable page.
Supported simulations
Three released models run for UK decisions: business cash runway, career-change buffer survival, and major-purchase buffer survival — each with its version, enforced 3–36-month horizon bound, refusal list and stated weaknesses in the model registry. Run one free; no account needed.
What is still missing — stated, not hidden
No city state. London evidence beyond the national series is not bundled, so no London-specific figures are shown — a city page will exist when city evidence does.
No approved research parameters. The research-to-simulation pipeline is future work; until it exists the UK sits at Level 3 on the coverage ladder, not Level 4.
No validated calibration record. Fewer than ten outcomes have resolved per domain, so no accuracy percentage is published for any model — the same sample rule the whole site obeys.
Why only one country? Because coverage is computed, never claimed: the registry holds the rule, and a second country page appears the day a second country earns Level 2.