Public forecast 006 · permanent record
Will Bank Rate be at or below 3.75% immediately after the November 2026 MPC announcement?
WITHDRAWN — kept on the record with its reason; withdrawals are never deleted.
- Question
- Will Bank Rate be at or below 3.75% immediately after the November 2026 MPC announcement?
- Probability band
- 88–96% — issued 2026-08-14, data cut-off 2026-08-14
- Frozen criterion
- Resolves TRUE if, following the Monetary Policy Summary published on 5 November 2026, Bank Rate is 3.75% or lower. Resolves FALSE if Bank Rate is above 3.75%. If the announcement is postponed beyond 30 November 2026 the forecast is marked withdrawn with that reason.
- Resolves by
- 2026-11-05
- Resolution source (named in advance)
- https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/the-interest-rate-bank-rate
- Model
- judgement — reasoning recorded at issue, unchanged since
- Ledger id
lxf_external_006- Why it was withdrawn
- Issued and PUBLISHED on lexun.co.uk on 14 August 2026, then withdrawn the same day. It said 88-96% that Bank Rate would not rise by 5 November, on the reasoning that every indicator pointed away from tightening. The July 2026 MPC minutes show three of nine members already voting to hike and risks tilted to the upside. This was a directional error, not a width error, and the correction is large: from roughly 92% to roughly 47%. Superseded by lxf_external_008.
Reasoning recorded at issue — unchanged since, including where it turned out to be wrong: This asks only whether rates rise, across two meetings and eighty-three days. Bank Rate is 3.75% and has been held twice; CPI is 2.6% and falling; unemployment is 4.9% and slightly higher than a year ago. Every one of those points away from tightening. An increase would require a material inflation surprise between now and November. The band is high but not extreme because eighty-three days is long enough for an external shock — an energy or currency move — to change the picture, and this forecast is deliberately being issued without any attempt to price that tail precisely.
If ten forecasts were issued at this band, the band claims roughly 9 or 10 of them should come true. Calibration — not certainty — is what the register is scored on.
What would prove this system wrong: a forecast on this register edited after issue, a resolution scored against anything but the source named in advance, or an accuracy claim made before ten outcomes have resolved in a domain. Every one is checkable from the raw ledger — the full falsification list.