Predictions we freeze in public — including the misses.
Client logos can be rented; a public scoring record cannot. Each month this page will carry five LEXUN predictions on fast-resolving public questions — each dated, frozen with a named resolution source and criterion, then scored with the Brier rule when reality answers. Misses are published permanently.
The register is empty, honestly. Zero predictions have been published so far — the first monthly set is being written and will appear here dated and frozen, not backfilled. A prediction added after the fact would be worthless, so an empty register is the correct starting state, exactly like the honest zero on the Accuracy Centre.
The rules every entry follows
- Frozen before the event, with a visible publish date — never edited afterwards.
- A named public resolution source (e.g. ONS release, Bank of England decision) and an unambiguous criterion, fixed at publish time.
- A probability, not a hedge — scored with the Brier rule on resolution.
- Misses stay on this page permanently. Deleting a miss would end this product's reason to exist.
These editorial forecasts are separate from the three release-gated decision models and are labelled as such — they demonstrate scoring discipline, not model output.