Will the Bank of England hold Bank Rate at 3.75% at the September 2026 MPC announcement?

Reasoning recorded at issue — unchanged since, including where it turned out to be wrong: This replaces lxf_external_001, which reached a similar band by the wrong argument. The July 2026 MPC minutes record a 6-3 vote to hold, with Greene, Mann and Pill voting to increase Bank Rate by 0.25pp to 4%, and the Committee judging that the risks to the inflation outlook are tilted to the upside and that the risk of strong inflationary pressures was greater than the risk of weak ones. Nobody voted to cut. The alternative to a hold is therefore a HIKE, not a cut, which is the opposite of what the withdrawn entry assumed. A third of the Committee already wanting to move is a real probability of movement, so this sits below 85%; against that, the three dissenters would need to persuade two colleagues within seven weeks and September carries no Monetary Policy Report. Falling CPI, at 2.6% in June from 2.8% in May, argues against them doing so.

If ten forecasts were issued at this band, the band claims roughly 7 or 8 of them should come true. Calibration — not certainty — is what the register is scored on.