{ "_purpose": "THE LEXUN PREDICTION LEDGER. Append-only. A forecast entered here is frozen: its probability, resolution criterion and due date cannot be edited afterwards, and a correction is a NEW entry that supersedes the old one while both remain. audit/ledger.py enforces this at build time.", "_rules": [ "A forecast is issued BEFORE its outcome is knowable. Backfilling a forecast whose outcome already exists is falsification, not history.", "issued_at, criterion and due_date are immutable once written. Changing any of them requires a new entry with supersedes set.", "A forecast is never deleted. If it becomes unresolvable it is marked withdrawn, with a reason, and it stays in the file.", "Resolution records the evidence and its source. An ambiguous outcome resolves as disputed, never as a convenient binary.", "No accuracy figure is computed or published until a domain has at least 10 resolved outcomes.", "Selection is documented: forecasts are not chosen for being easy, and misses are never removed.", "Every entry names its forecaster and its scoreboard. Scores are reported per scoreboard and never pooled: an operator being right about the Bank of England is not evidence that the cash-runway model is calibrated.", "A due date must be reachable: it falls after the resolution source publishes, with margin for a release that slips.", "Withdrawal is bounded. A forecast may be withdrawn only within 24 hours of its issued_at and only for a defect in its own construction: reasoning shown to be wrong, a due date its source cannot meet, or a criterion that cannot be judged. After 24 hours it stands and is scored whatever the outcome. A withdrawn entry stays in the file, counts as VOID on the scoreboard (never as a hit or a miss), and is never replaced silently: any replacement names what it supersedes." ], "_schema": { "id": "lxf__", "question": "one sentence, objectively resolvable by the stated criterion", "domain": "runway | career | opportunity | external", "issued_at": "RFC3339 UTC, before the outcome is knowable", "data_cutoff": "RFC3339 UTC — what was knowable when it was issued", "probability": "band as {lo, hi} in 0..1 — never a point estimate", "criterion": "how reality settles this, written before the answer is known", "resolution_source": "the named source that will settle it", "fallback_source": "used only if the primary is unavailable", "due_date": "RFC3339 UTC", "model": "runway@1.0.0 | career@1.1.0 | opportunity@1.0.0 | judgement", "seed": "integer, when a model produced it", "inputs_hash": "sha256 of the canonical inputs, when a model produced it", "receipt": "sha256 over the canonical bytes of this entry at freeze time", "status": "open | resolved | withdrawn | disputed", "supersedes": "id of an earlier entry, when this is a correction", "outcome": "null until reality answers; then {value, evidence, source, resolved_at, brier}", "forecaster": "who or what produced the probability: \"operator judgement\" or a model id", "scoreboard": "editorial | runway | career | opportunity — scores are never pooled across these", "source_publishes_at": "RFC3339 UTC — when the resolution source actually publishes. The due date must fall at least 30 minutes after it." }, "minimum_sample_before_accuracy": 10, "forecasts": [ { "id": "lxf_external_001", "domain": "external", "model": "judgement", "question": "Will the Bank of England hold Bank Rate at 3.75% at the September 2026 MPC announcement?", "criterion": "Resolves TRUE if the Monetary Policy Summary published by the Bank of England on 17 September 2026 states that Bank Rate is maintained at 3.75%. Resolves FALSE if Bank Rate is set to any other level. If the announcement is postponed beyond 30 September 2026 the forecast is marked withdrawn with that reason, not resolved.", "resolution_source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/the-interest-rate-bank-rate", "fallback_source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes", "issued_at": "2026-08-14T00:00:00Z", "data_cutoff": "2026-08-14T00:00:00Z", "due_date": "2026-09-17T12:00:00Z", "probability": { "lo": 0.62, "hi": 0.78 }, "reasoning": "Bank Rate has been held at 3.75% at the two most recent announcements (June and July 2026). CPI has fallen from 2.8% to 2.6%, which argues for an eventual cut, and unemployment at 4.9% is 0.2pp above a year earlier, which argues the same way. Against that: September is not a Monetary Policy Report month — those fall in February, April, July and November in 2026 — and the MPC has historically been more inclined to move at meetings accompanied by a full forecast round. A hold is therefore more likely than a change, but a cut is a live possibility rather than a remote one, which is why this band sits well below the high-confidence entries in this cohort.", "status": "withdrawn", "outcome": null, "receipt": "10ae0c1323406fff32ac9241809e9b674730dbe312e918ff8ec2ad14bea8df69", "forecaster": "operator judgement", "scoreboard": "editorial", "not_evidence_for": "the runway, career or opportunity models — none of them forecasts CPI, Bank Rate, unemployment or insolvency counts", "withdrawn_at": "2026-08-14T18:14:36.207079Z", "withdrawn_reason": "Issued and PUBLISHED on lexun.co.uk on 14 August 2026, then withdrawn the same day. The reasoning treated the residual probability as cut risk. The July 2026 MPC minutes record a 6-3 vote with three members — Greene, Mann and Pill — voting to INCREASE Bank Rate to 4%, and the Committee judging inflation risks tilted to the upside. Market pricing on 13 August implied close to zero probability of a cut. The band was roughly the right size for the wrong reason, and a forecast whose stated argument is wrong cannot be learned from. Superseded by lxf_external_007.", "was_published": true, "publication_evidence": "verified live at https://lexun.co.uk/forecast-ledger.json on 2026-08-14 before withdrawal" }, { "id": "lxf_external_002", "domain": "external", "model": "judgement", "question": "Will UK CPI annual inflation for July 2026, as first published, be between 2.2% and 3.0% inclusive?", "criterion": "Resolves TRUE if the CPI 12-month rate for July 2026, in the figure first published by the ONS in the Consumer price inflation bulletin on 19 August 2026, is greater than or equal to 2.2% and less than or equal to 3.0%. Later revisions do not change the resolution: this is scored against the number as first published.", "resolution_source": "https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/latest", "fallback_source": "https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices", "issued_at": "2026-08-14T00:00:00Z", "data_cutoff": "2026-08-14T00:00:00Z", "due_date": "2026-08-19T08:00:00Z", "probability": { "lo": 0.85, "hi": 0.93 }, "reasoning": "The annual CPI rate was 2.8% in May 2026 and 2.6% in June 2026. Month-to-month movements in the annual rate are usually a few tenths of a percentage point; this band allows 0.4pp of movement in either direction from the June print, which covers the great majority of historical one-month changes. The residual risk is concentrated in July's known seasonal components — airfares and summer sales — and in base effects from July 2025 that were not examined before this forecast was issued.", "status": "resolved", "outcome": { "value": true, "brier": 0.0121, "figure": "2.9%", "evidence": "The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 2.9% in the 12 months to July 2026, up from 2.6% the previous month.", "source": "https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/july2026", "source_published_at": "2026-08-19T06:00:00Z", "resolved_at": "2026-08-19T16:08:00.394373Z", "scored_against": "band midpoint 0.89" }, "receipt": "03852478048de08138ff1e954e5d06f30215183030583505b32b15b67cc06cfb", "forecaster": "operator judgement", "scoreboard": "editorial", "not_evidence_for": "the runway, career or opportunity models — none of them forecasts CPI, Bank Rate, unemployment or insolvency counts", "source_publishes_at": "2026-08-19T06:00:00Z" }, { "id": "lxf_external_003", "domain": "external", "model": "judgement", "question": "Will UK CPI annual inflation for July 2026, as first published, be lower than the 2.6% recorded for June 2026?", "criterion": "Resolves TRUE if the CPI 12-month rate for July 2026, as first published by the ONS on 19 August 2026, is strictly less than 2.6%. Resolves FALSE if it is 2.6% or higher. Scored against the figure as first published, not against later revisions.", "resolution_source": "https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/latest", "fallback_source": "https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices", "issued_at": "2026-08-14T00:00:00Z", "data_cutoff": "2026-08-14T00:00:00Z", "due_date": "2026-08-19T08:00:00Z", "probability": { "lo": 0.42, "hi": 0.58 }, "reasoning": "This is deliberately a question we do not know the answer to, and the register needs those: a track record made only of near-certainties cannot demonstrate calibration in the middle of the range. The direction of travel has been downward (2.8% to 2.6%), which is weak evidence for a further fall, but a single month's change in the annual rate is dominated by base effects from the corresponding month a year earlier, which were not analysed here. Absent that analysis the honest position is close to even, tilted very slightly toward a fall by momentum alone.", "status": "resolved", "outcome": { "value": false, "brier": 0.25, "figure": "2.9%", "evidence": "The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 2.9% in the 12 months to July 2026, up from 2.6% the previous month.", "source": "https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/july2026", "source_published_at": "2026-08-19T06:00:00Z", "resolved_at": "2026-08-19T16:08:14.679024Z", "scored_against": "band midpoint 0.50" }, "receipt": "c2780d032350b73f94e03664e59859be778b8178407257d07866b9560fcb231a", "forecaster": "operator judgement", "scoreboard": "editorial", "not_evidence_for": "the runway, career or opportunity models — none of them forecasts CPI, Bank Rate, unemployment or insolvency counts", "source_publishes_at": "2026-08-19T06:00:00Z" }, { "id": "lxf_external_004", "domain": "external", "model": "judgement", "question": "Will the ONS headline UK unemployment rate published on 18 August 2026 be between 4.6% and 5.2% inclusive?", "criterion": "Resolves TRUE if the headline unemployment rate for people aged 16 and over, for the latest three-month period in the ONS Labour market overview published on 18 August 2026, is greater than or equal to 4.6% and less than or equal to 5.2%. If the ONS does not publish a headline 16+ unemployment rate for a three-month period in that release, the forecast is marked withdrawn with that reason rather than resolved either way.", "resolution_source": "https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/latest", "fallback_source": "https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peoplenotinwork/unemployment", "issued_at": "2026-08-14T00:00:00Z", "data_cutoff": "2026-08-14T00:00:00Z", "due_date": "2026-08-18T08:00:00Z", "probability": { "lo": 0.86, "hi": 0.94 }, "reasoning": "The rate was 4.9% for March to May 2026, down 0.1pp on the previous three-month period and up 0.2pp on a year earlier. Rolling three-month estimates overlap by two months, so consecutive readings move slowly; a 0.3pp band either side of 4.9% covers a very large share of historical one-release movements. The explicit withdrawal clause is not a hedge on the number: the ONS has been transforming its labour market statistics and has changed what it publishes before, and a forecast whose subject stops being published should be recorded as unresolvable rather than scored as a hit or a miss.", "status": "resolved", "outcome": { "value": true, "brier": 0.01, "figure": "4.9%", "evidence": "The UK unemployment rate for people aged 16 years and over was estimated at 4.9% in April to June 2026.", "source": "https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/august2026", "source_published_at": "2026-08-18T06:00:00Z", "resolved_at": "2026-08-18T15:29:13.710624Z", "scored_against": "band midpoint 0.90" }, "receipt": "161612780a7e727ca1bc866740894900d19cf67a91939492f44b89ff0d5bbf56", "forecaster": "operator judgement", "scoreboard": "editorial", "not_evidence_for": "the runway, career or opportunity models — none of them forecasts CPI, Bank Rate, unemployment or insolvency counts", "source_publishes_at": "2026-08-18T06:00:00Z" }, { "id": "lxf_external_005", "domain": "external", "model": "judgement", "question": "Will registered company insolvencies in England and Wales for July 2026 be between 1,550 and 2,150 inclusive?", "criterion": "Resolves TRUE if the number of registered company insolvencies in England and Wales in July 2026, as first published by the Insolvency Service in the monthly company insolvency statistics on 18 August 2026, is greater than or equal to 1,550 and less than or equal to 2,150. Scored against the figure as first published.", "resolution_source": "https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/company-insolvency-statistics-releases", "fallback_source": "https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/insolvency-service-official-statistics", "issued_at": "2026-08-14T00:00:00Z", "data_cutoff": "2026-08-14T00:00:00Z", "due_date": "2026-08-18T08:00:00Z", "probability": { "lo": 0.8, "hi": 0.9 }, "reasoning": "There were 1,845 registered company insolvencies in June 2026 and 1,849 in May 2026, with June 10% below the 2,048 recorded in June 2025. The band spans roughly 16% either side of the two most recent months, which are themselves almost identical. Monthly counts are affected by the number of working days and by administrative processing, so single-month swings of ten per cent are ordinary; swings beyond sixteen per cent are not. This is the entry in the cohort closest to LEXUN's own subject matter, since the runway model exists to forecast whether a business is one of these numbers.", "status": "withdrawn", "outcome": null, "receipt": "6bad8cdc4d7010c0f7ede59a93af4dd6325b7d17273ee5fa7d5663f28cb25103", "forecaster": "operator judgement", "scoreboard": "editorial", "not_evidence_for": "the runway, career or opportunity models — none of them forecasts CPI, Bank Rate, unemployment or insolvency counts", "correction": "Added 2026-08-14, before publication. The reasoning cites 1,849 for May 2026, which is the figure quoted in the June commentary. The May commentary as first published gives 1,868. Both are official — monthly insolvency counts are revised — which is exactly why this forecast is scored against the figure AS FIRST PUBLISHED. The band is unchanged: 1,845 remains the correct June base it was set from.", "acknowledged_critique": "An external review computed a 6.88% standard deviation of one-month changes over Dec 2025 to Jun 2026 and concluded this band spans about -2.6 to +2.2 sigma, i.e. nearer 98% coverage than the 80-90% stated. That critique is probably right and this forecast is probably under-confident. It is being left as issued rather than tightened: n=6 is a thin basis for a sigma, and a band widened by caution and then narrowed after someone points it out is a band chosen to look good. It will be scored as written, and if it resolves comfortably inside, that is evidence of under-confidence which belongs in the calibration record.", "withdrawn_at": "2026-08-14T18:58:41.608733Z", "withdrawn_reason": "Issued and PUBLISHED on lexun.co.uk on 14 August 2026, then withdrawn the same day. The due date was set to 2026-08-18T08:00:00Z, which is 09:00 BST. The Insolvency Service publishes its monthly statistics at 09:30 BST — verified from the GOV.UK content API, which gives first_published_at 2026-07-17T09:30:04+01:00 for the June release. The forecast was therefore unresolvable at its own due date, thirty minutes before the only source that can settle it. Due dates are immutable, so this is corrected by supersession rather than edit. Superseded by lxf_external_009, which carries the same question, band and criterion with a reachable due date." }, { "id": "lxf_external_006", "domain": "external", "model": "judgement", "question": "Will Bank Rate be at or below 3.75% immediately after the November 2026 MPC announcement?", "criterion": "Resolves TRUE if, following the Monetary Policy Summary published on 5 November 2026, Bank Rate is 3.75% or lower. Resolves FALSE if Bank Rate is above 3.75%. If the announcement is postponed beyond 30 November 2026 the forecast is marked withdrawn with that reason.", "resolution_source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/the-interest-rate-bank-rate", "fallback_source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes", "issued_at": "2026-08-14T00:00:00Z", "data_cutoff": "2026-08-14T00:00:00Z", "due_date": "2026-11-05T12:00:00Z", "probability": { "lo": 0.88, "hi": 0.96 }, "reasoning": "This asks only whether rates rise, across two meetings and eighty-three days. Bank Rate is 3.75% and has been held twice; CPI is 2.6% and falling; unemployment is 4.9% and slightly higher than a year ago. Every one of those points away from tightening. An increase would require a material inflation surprise between now and November. The band is high but not extreme because eighty-three days is long enough for an external shock — an energy or currency move — to change the picture, and this forecast is deliberately being issued without any attempt to price that tail precisely.", "status": "withdrawn", "outcome": null, "receipt": "23b4571166561e51e1f55f7f14fb3b33df4d7c26ab0ed2e8df486b80cd1b16f2", "forecaster": "operator judgement", "scoreboard": "editorial", "not_evidence_for": "the runway, career or opportunity models — none of them forecasts CPI, Bank Rate, unemployment or insolvency counts", "withdrawn_at": "2026-08-14T18:14:36.240678Z", "withdrawn_reason": "Issued and PUBLISHED on lexun.co.uk on 14 August 2026, then withdrawn the same day. It said 88-96% that Bank Rate would not rise by 5 November, on the reasoning that every indicator pointed away from tightening. The July 2026 MPC minutes show three of nine members already voting to hike and risks tilted to the upside. This was a directional error, not a width error, and the correction is large: from roughly 92% to roughly 47%. Superseded by lxf_external_008.", "was_published": true, "publication_evidence": "verified live at https://lexun.co.uk/forecast-ledger.json on 2026-08-14 before withdrawal" }, { "id": "lxf_external_007", "domain": "external", "model": "judgement", "forecaster": "operator judgement", "scoreboard": "editorial", "not_evidence_for": "the runway, career or opportunity models — none of them forecasts Bank Rate", "supersedes": "lxf_external_001", "question": "Will the Bank of England hold Bank Rate at 3.75% at the September 2026 MPC announcement?", "criterion": "Resolves TRUE if the Monetary Policy Summary published by the Bank of England on 17 September 2026 states that Bank Rate is maintained at 3.75%. Resolves FALSE if Bank Rate is set to any other level, higher or lower. If the announcement is postponed beyond 30 September 2026 the forecast is marked withdrawn with that reason, not resolved.", "resolution_source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/the-interest-rate-bank-rate", "fallback_source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes", "issued_at": "2026-08-14T00:00:00Z", "data_cutoff": "2026-08-14T00:00:00Z", "due_date": "2026-09-17T12:00:00Z", "probability": { "lo": 0.7, "hi": 0.84 }, "reasoning": "This replaces lxf_external_001, which reached a similar band by the wrong argument. The July 2026 MPC minutes record a 6-3 vote to hold, with Greene, Mann and Pill voting to increase Bank Rate by 0.25pp to 4%, and the Committee judging that the risks to the inflation outlook are tilted to the upside and that the risk of strong inflationary pressures was greater than the risk of weak ones. Nobody voted to cut. The alternative to a hold is therefore a HIKE, not a cut, which is the opposite of what the withdrawn entry assumed. A third of the Committee already wanting to move is a real probability of movement, so this sits below 85%; against that, the three dissenters would need to persuade two colleagues within seven weeks and September carries no Monetary Policy Report. Falling CPI, at 2.6% in June from 2.8% in May, argues against them doing so.", "status": "open", "outcome": null, "receipt": "cc9f79570ff70b2f43925a6300105bcbe80d7998b2dc1a3667b54453914dd0e6", "source_publishes_at": "2026-09-17T11:00:00Z" }, { "id": "lxf_external_008", "domain": "external", "model": "judgement", "forecaster": "operator judgement", "scoreboard": "editorial", "not_evidence_for": "the runway, career or opportunity models — none of them forecasts Bank Rate", "supersedes": "lxf_external_006", "question": "Will Bank Rate be at or below 3.75% immediately after the November 2026 MPC announcement?", "criterion": "Resolves TRUE if, following the Monetary Policy Summary published on 5 November 2026, Bank Rate is 3.75% or lower. Resolves FALSE if Bank Rate is above 3.75%. If the announcement is postponed beyond 30 November 2026 the forecast is marked withdrawn with that reason.", "resolution_source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/the-interest-rate-bank-rate", "fallback_source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes", "issued_at": "2026-08-14T00:00:00Z", "data_cutoff": "2026-08-14T00:00:00Z", "due_date": "2026-11-05T12:00:00Z", "probability": { "lo": 0.38, "hi": 0.56 }, "reasoning": "This replaces lxf_external_006, which said 88-96% on the reasoning that every indicator pointed away from tightening. That was a directional error, not a width error, and the correction is large enough to be worth stating plainly: from roughly 92% to roughly 47%. The question asks whether Bank Rate avoids a rise across TWO meetings, 17 September and 5 November, and three of nine Committee members were already voting to hike in July while the Committee judged inflation risks tilted to the upside. November also carries a Monetary Policy Report, and the MPC has historically been more inclined to move at meetings accompanied by a full forecast round. Two chances to move, with a third of the Committee already wanting to, puts this close to even. It is deliberately left below 50% rather than nudged above it: the honest reading of the July vote is that a rise by November is slightly more likely than not, and a forecast that flinches from its own evidence is worth nothing.", "status": "withdrawn", "outcome": null, "receipt": "77559138049bce92fae123094c84ccb4669385f049b02035008b822940ca3271", "evidence_noted_after_issue": "The Bank of England Market Participants Survey for July 2026, fielded 15-17 July with 78 respondents, gives a median expected Bank Rate of 3.75% at the September, November and December 2026 meetings, with the first cut to 3.50% expected in June 2027. That points the opposite way from this 38-56% band and suggests the correction from 88-96% may have overshot. It is recorded here and the band is NOT changed: the survey was fielded before the 30 July minutes that prompted the correction, so it is stale against the 6-3 vote it would be used to argue with, and re-issuing a forecast every time a datapoint arrives is how a register stops meaning anything. If this resolves TRUE, the record will show a band that was moved too far on the strength of one document, and that is a lesson worth having.", "withdrawn_at": "2026-08-14T19:38:41.708291Z", "withdrawn_reason": "Issued 14 August 2026 and withdrawn the same day, before deployment. The due date was 2026-11-05T12:00:00Z. The Bank of England publishes the Monetary Policy Summary and minutes at 12 noon UK, and British Summer Time ends on 25 October 2026, so on 5 November 12:00 UK IS 12:00 UTC. The deadline was therefore the publication instant itself, with zero margin — the same defect that retired lxf_external_005, one hour short of biting instead of thirty minutes past it. Both came from setting a deadline off a UK wall-clock time without carrying the offset through. Superseded by lxf_external_010: same question, same band, same criterion, one hour of margin, and the publication instant now declared on the record so the gate can check it." }, { "id": "lxf_external_009", "domain": "external", "model": "judgement", "forecaster": "operator judgement", "scoreboard": "editorial", "not_evidence_for": "the runway, career or opportunity models — none of them forecasts insolvency counts", "supersedes": "lxf_external_005", "question": "Will registered company insolvencies in England and Wales for July 2026 be between 1,550 and 2,150 inclusive?", "criterion": "Resolves TRUE if the number of registered company insolvencies in England and Wales in July 2026, as first published by the Insolvency Service in the monthly company insolvency statistics on 18 August 2026, is greater than or equal to 1,550 and less than or equal to 2,150. Scored against the figure as first published, not against later revisions.", "resolution_source": "https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/company-insolvency-statistics-releases", "fallback_source": "https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/insolvency-service-official-statistics", "source_publishes_at": "2026-08-18T08:30:00Z", "issued_at": "2026-08-14T00:00:00Z", "data_cutoff": "2026-08-14T00:00:00Z", "due_date": "2026-08-18T10:00:00Z", "probability": { "lo": 0.8, "hi": 0.9 }, "reasoning": "Identical question, band and criterion to lxf_external_005, which was withdrawn because its due date fell thirty minutes before its own source publishes. The band is deliberately unchanged: the only defect was the clock. There were 1,845 registered company insolvencies in June 2026 and 1,849 in May 2026 as restated in the June commentary, with June 10% below the 2,048 of June 2025. The band spans roughly 16% either side of a 1,845 base. An external review computed a standard deviation of about 7% on one-month changes over Dec 2025 to Jun 2026 and concluded this band is nearer 98% coverage than the 80-90% stated, and is therefore under-confident. That critique is probably right and the band is still being carried unchanged, because a band widened by caution and then narrowed once someone points it out is a band chosen to look good. If it resolves comfortably inside, that is evidence of under-confidence and it belongs in the calibration record rather than being tuned away beforehand.", "status": "resolved", "outcome": { "value": true, "brier": 0.0225, "figure": "1,931", "evidence": "The number of registered company insolvencies in England and Wales was 1,931 in July 2026, 5% higher than in June 2026 (1,847) but 5% lower than the same month in the previous year (2,031 in July 2025).", "source": "https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/company-insolvencies-july-2026/commentary-company-insolvency-statistics-july-2026", "source_published_at": "2026-08-18T08:30:00Z", "resolved_at": "2026-08-22T19:50:36.989771Z", "scored_against": "band midpoint 0.85" }, "receipt": "be8e9b0f30ef4efccd466907821ecd550fe0814e3118c6e87b562eb9683efb22" }, { "id": "lxf_external_010", "domain": "external", "model": "judgement", "forecaster": "operator judgement", "scoreboard": "editorial", "not_evidence_for": "the runway, career or opportunity models — none of them forecasts Bank Rate", "supersedes": "lxf_external_008", "question": "Will Bank Rate be at or below 3.75% immediately after the November 2026 MPC announcement?", "criterion": "Resolves TRUE if, following the Monetary Policy Summary published on 5 November 2026, Bank Rate is 3.75% or lower. Resolves FALSE if Bank Rate is above 3.75%. If the announcement is postponed beyond 30 November 2026 the forecast is marked withdrawn with that reason.", "resolution_source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/the-interest-rate-bank-rate", "fallback_source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes", "source_publishes_at": "2026-11-05T12:00:00Z", "issued_at": "2026-08-14T00:00:00Z", "data_cutoff": "2026-08-14T00:00:00Z", "due_date": "2026-11-05T13:00:00Z", "probability": { "lo": 0.38, "hi": 0.56 }, "reasoning": "Identical question, band and criterion to lxf_external_008. Only the clock was wrong: the deadline was set to the publication instant itself, because 12 noon UK on 5 November is 12:00 UTC once British Summer Time has ended. The band is carried unchanged and deliberately not revisited. It asks whether Bank Rate avoids a rise across two meetings, 17 September and 5 November. The July 2026 MPC minutes record three of nine members voting to increase Bank Rate to 4%, with the Committee judging inflation risks tilted to the upside, and November carries a Monetary Policy Report — the MPC has historically been more inclined to move at meetings with a full forecast round. Two chances to move with a third of the Committee already wanting to puts this close to even, and it is left below 50% rather than nudged above it.", "evidence_noted_after_issue": "The Bank of England Market Participants Survey for July 2026, fielded 15-17 July with 78 respondents, gives a median expected Bank Rate of 3.75% at the September, November and December 2026 meetings, with the first cut to 3.50% expected in June 2027. That points the opposite way from this band and suggests the correction from the original 88-96% may have overshot. It is recorded and the band is NOT changed: the survey was fielded before the 30 July minutes it would be used to argue with, and re-issuing a forecast every time a datapoint arrives is how a register stops meaning anything. If this resolves TRUE, the record will show a band moved too far on the strength of one document, and that is a lesson worth having.", "status": "open", "outcome": null, "receipt": "b59e800ce4f8732db3b66acdec312ed52c55e15e2cf4d8ffd72e5b957938adf2" }, { "id": "lxf_external_011", "domain": "external", "model": "judgement", "forecaster": "operator judgement", "scoreboard": "editorial", "not_evidence_for": "the runway, career or opportunity models — none of them forecasts CPI", "question": "Will UK CPI annual inflation for August 2026, as first published, be between 2.5% and 3.3% inclusive?", "criterion": "Resolves TRUE if the CPI 12-month rate for August 2026, in the figure first published by the ONS in the Consumer price inflation bulletin scheduled for 16 September 2026, is greater than or equal to 2.5% and less than or equal to 3.3%. Resolves FALSE otherwise. Later revisions do not change the resolution: this is scored against the number as first published. If the bulletin is postponed beyond 30 September 2026 the forecast is marked withdrawn with that reason.", "resolution_source": "https://www.ons.gov.uk/releases/consumerpriceinflationukaugust2026", "fallback_source": "https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/latest", "source_publishes_at": "2026-09-16T06:00:00Z", "issued_at": "2026-08-30T17:00:00Z", "data_cutoff": "2026-08-30T17:00:00Z", "due_date": "2026-09-16T08:00:00Z", "probability": { "lo": 0.84, "hi": 0.92 }, "reasoning": "The annual CPI rate in 2026 has moved 2.8% (May) to 2.6% (June) to 2.9% (July) — one-month changes of −0.2pp and +0.3pp, the July move larger than usual on airfares, food and base effects (all figures as first published and resolved on this register, lxf_external_002/003). This band allows 0.4pp of movement in either direction from the July print, the same window that resolved TRUE for July (lxf_external_002, band 85–93%, Brier 0.0121). The band here is set slightly lower than that one because July just demonstrated a +0.3pp single-month move and August 2025 base effects were not analysed before issue — the honest price of an un-analysed component is a wider admission of being wrong.", "status": "resolved", "outcome": { "value": true, "brier": 0.0144, "figure": "3.1%", "evidence": "The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 3.1% in the 12 months to August 2026", "source": "https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/august2026", "source_published_at": "2026-09-16T06:00:00Z", "resolved_at": "2026-09-16T18:06:57.193611Z", "scored_against": "band midpoint 0.88" }, "receipt": "3d8a10bf0726766aace5d5cef9fe0e272843182d4dad177792f4a7573e959163" }, { "id": "lxf_external_012", "domain": "external", "model": "judgement", "forecaster": "operator judgement", "scoreboard": "editorial", "not_evidence_for": "the runway, career or opportunity models — none of them forecasts the unemployment rate", "question": "Will the ONS headline UK unemployment rate for the three months to July 2026, as first published, be between 4.7% and 5.1% inclusive?", "criterion": "Resolves TRUE if the headline UK unemployment rate (aged 16 and over, three months May to July 2026), in the figure first published by the ONS in the Labour market overview bulletin scheduled for 15 September 2026, is greater than or equal to 4.7% and less than or equal to 5.1%. Resolves FALSE otherwise. Scored against the figure as first published, not later revisions. If the bulletin is postponed beyond 30 September 2026 the forecast is marked withdrawn with that reason.", "resolution_source": "https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/previousreleases", "fallback_source": "https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes", "source_publishes_at": "2026-09-15T06:00:00Z", "issued_at": "2026-08-30T17:00:00Z", "data_cutoff": "2026-08-30T17:00:00Z", "due_date": "2026-09-15T08:00:00Z", "probability": { "lo": 0.86, "hi": 0.94 }, "reasoning": "The headline rate was 4.9% for April to June 2026, as first published on 18 August 2026 and resolved on this register (lxf_external_004); the same bulletin notes the rate down 0.1pp on the quarter, with vacancies at 707,000 and falling — a cooling but not collapsing market. The May-to-July window shares two of three months with the April-to-June window, so month-to-month movement in the rolling headline rate is structurally small; one-quarter changes of more than 0.2pp are rare in the modern series. The band is the July print ±0.2pp. The residual risk is methodological rather than economic: the Labour Force Survey remains in transformation and its month-on-month volatility has been higher than historic norms, which is why this is not issued at 90%+.", "status": "resolved", "outcome": { "value": true, "brier": 0.01, "figure": "4.9%", "evidence": "The UK unemployment rate for people aged 16 years and over was estimated at 4.9% in May to July 2026.", "source": "https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/september2026", "source_published_at": "2026-09-15T06:00:00Z", "resolved_at": "2026-09-16T18:06:57.165257Z", "scored_against": "band midpoint 0.90" }, "receipt": "2c84cf290170da82e82578c120af7a879d3e4dd888e56c185babf5bac5e04931" } ], "_state": "OPEN. First cohort issued 2026-08-14. Entries are append-only: a forecast is never deleted, never edited, and a miss is never removed.", "_corrections": [ { "at": "2026-08-14T18:16:40.208855Z", "what": "The withdrawal reasons on lxf_external_001 and lxf_external_006 originally said \"Withdrawn before publication\". That was false: both had already been deployed and were live on lexun.co.uk when they were withdrawn. The reasons now say so, and the entries carry was_published: true with the evidence.", "why": "A withdrawal note that understates how far a wrong forecast travelled is the same class of defect as the forecast itself. This is recorded here rather than quietly edited, because the ledger is the one file on this site that must never be tidied." }, { "at": "2026-08-14T00:00:00Z", "what": "lxf_external_005 was issued and published with a due date of 08:00Z, thirty minutes before the Insolvency Service publishes at 08:30Z. It was unresolvable at its own deadline. Withdrawn and superseded by lxf_external_009 with the same question, band and criterion and a reachable due date.", "why": "Due dates are immutable, so a wrong one is corrected by supersession, never by edit. The tool now requires source_publishes_at and refuses a deadline that arrives before it — the only clock check it had was \"is the due date in the future\"." }, { "at": "2026-08-14T00:00:00Z", "what": "lxf_external_008 was issued with a due date of 2026-11-05T12:00:00Z, which is the exact instant the Bank of England publishes — 12 noon UK, and BST ends 25 October, so on 5 November noon UK is 12:00 UTC. Zero margin, against a rule requiring thirty minutes. Withdrawn and superseded by lxf_external_010. The publication instant is now declared on every open entry.", "why": "The gate added hours earlier for exactly this defect could not see it, because source_publishes_at was optional and only lxf_external_009 declared it. An optional gate is a decoration: it fires when someone remembers, which is the case where it was never needed. It is mandatory now." }, { "at": "2026-09-03T20:54:23.824778Z", "what": "Corrections #1 and #2 in this log carry at: 2026-08-14T00:00:00Z, midnight, but describe events that happened later that day: #1 records the withdrawal of lxf_external_005 (withdrawn_at 2026-08-14T18:58:41.608733Z) and its supersession by lxf_external_009; #2 records the withdrawal of lxf_external_008 (withdrawn_at 2026-08-14T19:38:41.708291Z) and its supersession by lxf_external_010, and also refers to lxf_external_009. Both were written by hand with a date and no time, so the log claims to have recorded two events before they happened. The two entries are not edited; this entry states the correct instants, and audit/forecast.py --correct now stamps every correction from the clock while audit/ledger.py refuses any correction dated before the events it refers to.", "why": "An audit log that predates its own events cannot be trusted on anything else, and the remedy for a wrong timestamp in an append-only file is a dated acknowledgement, not a quiet edit. Found by an external verification of the public ledger on 3 September 2026.", "acknowledges": [ 1, 2 ] } ] }