Public forecast 001 · permanent record
Will the Bank of England hold Bank Rate at 3.75% at the September 2026 MPC announcement?
WITHDRAWN — kept on the record with its reason; withdrawals are never deleted.
- Question
- Will the Bank of England hold Bank Rate at 3.75% at the September 2026 MPC announcement?
- Probability band
- 62–78% — issued 2026-08-14, data cut-off 2026-08-14
- Frozen criterion
- Resolves TRUE if the Monetary Policy Summary published by the Bank of England on 17 September 2026 states that Bank Rate is maintained at 3.75%. Resolves FALSE if Bank Rate is set to any other level. If the announcement is postponed beyond 30 September 2026 the forecast is marked withdrawn with that reason, not resolved.
- Resolves by
- 2026-09-17
- Resolution source (named in advance)
- https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/the-interest-rate-bank-rate
- Model
- judgement — reasoning recorded at issue, unchanged since
- Ledger id
lxf_external_001- Why it was withdrawn
- Issued and PUBLISHED on lexun.co.uk on 14 August 2026, then withdrawn the same day. The reasoning treated the residual probability as cut risk. The July 2026 MPC minutes record a 6-3 vote with three members — Greene, Mann and Pill — voting to INCREASE Bank Rate to 4%, and the Committee judging inflation risks tilted to the upside. Market pricing on 13 August implied close to zero probability of a cut. The band was roughly the right size for the wrong reason, and a forecast whose stated argument is wrong cannot be learned from. Superseded by lxf_external_007.
Reasoning recorded at issue — unchanged since, including where it turned out to be wrong: Bank Rate has been held at 3.75% at the two most recent announcements (June and July 2026). CPI has fallen from 2.8% to 2.6%, which argues for an eventual cut, and unemployment at 4.9% is 0.2pp above a year earlier, which argues the same way. Against that: September is not a Monetary Policy Report month — those fall in February, April, July and November in 2026 — and the MPC has historically been more inclined to move at meetings accompanied by a full forecast round. A hold is therefore more likely than a change, but a cut is a live possibility rather than a remote one, which is why this band sits well below the high-confidence entries in this cohort.
If ten forecasts were issued at this band, the band claims roughly 6 to 8 of them should come true. Calibration — not certainty — is what the register is scored on.
What would prove this system wrong: a forecast on this register edited after issue, a resolution scored against anything but the source named in advance, or an accuracy claim made before ten outcomes have resolved in a domain. Every one is checkable from the raw ledger — the full falsification list.