Public forecast 002 · permanent record
Will UK CPI annual inflation for July 2026, as first published, be between 2.2% and 3.0% inclusive?
RESOLVED — scored against the source named before the outcome was known.
- Question
- Will UK CPI annual inflation for July 2026, as first published, be between 2.2% and 3.0% inclusive?
- Probability band
- 85–93% — issued 2026-08-14, data cut-off 2026-08-14
- Frozen criterion
- Resolves TRUE if the CPI 12-month rate for July 2026, in the figure first published by the ONS in the Consumer price inflation bulletin on 19 August 2026, is greater than or equal to 2.2% and less than or equal to 3.0%. Later revisions do not change the resolution: this is scored against the number as first published.
- Resolves by
- 2026-08-19
- Resolution source (named in advance)
- https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/latest
- Model
- judgement — reasoning recorded at issue, unchanged since
- Ledger id
lxf_external_002- Outcome
- TRUE — 2.9%
- Evidence, as first published
- The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 2.9% in the 12 months to July 2026, up from 2.6% the previous month. (source, published 2026-08-19)
- Brier score
- 0.0121 — band midpoint 0.89. 0 is perfect, 0.25 is what always saying 50% scores.
Reasoning recorded at issue — unchanged since, including where it turned out to be wrong: The annual CPI rate was 2.8% in May 2026 and 2.6% in June 2026. Month-to-month movements in the annual rate are usually a few tenths of a percentage point; this band allows 0.4pp of movement in either direction from the June print, which covers the great majority of historical one-month changes. The residual risk is concentrated in July's known seasonal components — airfares and summer sales — and in base effects from July 2025 that were not examined before this forecast was issued.
If ten forecasts were issued at this band, the band claims roughly 8 or 9 of them should come true. Calibration — not certainty — is what the register is scored on.
What would prove this system wrong: a forecast on this register edited after issue, a resolution scored against anything but the source named in advance, or an accuracy claim made before ten outcomes have resolved in a domain. Every one is checkable from the raw ledger — the full falsification list.