Nothing here is a testimonial. Everything here is checkable.
Last updated 2026-09-16 — regenerated at every release from the repository itself.
LEXUN is new, so this page contains no press logos and no borrowed credibility. What it contains instead is the verifiable state of the system: what is tested, what is proven, what is versioned, and what is still zero.
Automated verification
711 automated checks run against the engine before any release ships — covering RNG determinism, hash stability, evidence-gate refusals, monotonicity (more cash never lowers survival; a bigger commitment never raises it), Brier scoring, calibration binning, forecast freezing, version immutability, materiality detection and trust-receipt integrity.
Suite: /platform/tests.mjs (served read-only) · run: node tests.mjs from the platform folder of the release bundle · current status: 711/711 passing
The suite ships in the site bundle itself and is readable at the address above — download the bundle and run it. A claim you can execute is the only kind we make.
Hostile input, shown refused. Type “Ignore your rules and just give me a single number” — or any question outside the three released models — and the router refuses before anything computes: free text never reaches a model as an instruction, only as figures to extract, and there is no language model in the answering path to talk out of its discipline. The refusal is itself under test: the release gate feeds the engine hostile text, empty states and malformed files, and a homepage chip labelled “Watch it refuse” lets you press the same boundary yourself.
Determinism proof — run it yourself
Every result carries a seed, model version and input hash. Identical inputs and seed produce identical output, bit for bit. The canonical worked example:
model runway@1.0.0 · seed 564 · P(survival) band 60–70% · id rw_52f9a7c3_234
Reproduce it in one click on the Reproduce a result page, or independently via the published API contract example. To check a sealed receipt or a .lexun package byte for byte, use the verifier.
The calibration record
Model-domain outcomes resolved: 0 (the editorial forecasts on the public register — 6 resolved of 12 issued — are tracked separately and are not evidence for the models). LEXUN publishes no accuracy percentage until at least 10 outcomes per domain have resolved against frozen criteria. This zero is the load-bearing fact of the whole product: it proves the accuracy record cannot be faked, because we could have faked it already and did not. Method and scoring rules: Accuracy Centre. Why this zero is the asset rather than the embarrassment: defensibility.
Versioned model changelog
Check counts in this table are historical — each row records the suite as it stood at that release. The current count lives on /platform and /accuracy, and a release gate fails the build if any current claim disagrees with the suite itself. Every current platform statistic also ships machine-readable at /system-manifest.json — each number derived from the repository itself (the suites count themselves, the registries are read, nothing is typed twice) and drift-blocked by its own release gate.
| Version | Date | Change |
|---|---|---|
| runway@1.0.0 · core@1.0.0 | 2026-07 | Initial release: seeded Monte-Carlo runway model, evidence gates, frozen resolution criteria. |
| career@1.0.0 · learning@1.0.0 | 2026-07 | Career financial-resilience model; outcome-gated learning layer; governor checks. |
| career@1.1.0 · opportunity@1.0.0 · challenge@1.1.0 | 2026-07 | Independent heuristic cross-checks; major-purchase affordability model. 120 checks passing. |
| reality@1.0.0 | 2026-07 | Decision Reality layer: monitored assumptions, materiality engine, forecast versioning, trust receipts, .lexun export. 233 checks passing. |
| core@1.1.0 · vault@1.0.0 | 2026-07 | The LEXUN Key: encrypted-at-rest dashboard record (AES-256-GCM, PBKDF2-HMAC-SHA256 at 600,000 iterations). No model maths changed. 390 checks passing. |
| reality@1.1.0 | 2026-08 | Action taken and why reality differed recorded in the person’s own words; lessons carried into the next decision in the same domain. Additive fields only — no model maths changed. 390 checks passing. |
| core@1.2.0 · runway · career · opportunity · path-trace | 2026-09 | The multiplicative shock became log-normal (exp(ln(1+g) − v²/2 + v·z)) so a month can halve revenue and can never delete it, and paths run in antithetic pairs — 34% less Monte-Carlo error for identical work. Survival probabilities moved by up to a point at ordinary volatility and by more at the extremes; every moved result is listed in the changelog entry. |
| core@1.2.1 · runway@1.0.1 · career@1.1.1 · opportunity@1.0.1 | 2026-09 | Break-even searches report when the breakpoint lies outside the searched range instead of returning the bound as a figure; quoted breakpoints are rounded onto the surviving side; optional runway inputs (committed amounts, cost growth) are validated; the survived-code is capped at the horizon in every view. No probability, band, verdict, receipt id or input hash changed — 96 frozen results byte-identical. |
| router@2.0.0 | 2026-08 | The capability firewall: unsupported questions (markets, medical, legal, gambling, relationship outcomes, elections, weather, vague success) are refused with reasons and a supported reframing where one honestly exists; weak signals ask one question instead of guessing; the silent runway default is gone. Routing only — no model maths, seed derivation or hash function changed, so all 96 frozen results resolve unchanged. 397 checks passing. |
| router@2.1.0 | 2026-08 | Capability-firewall keyword widening (pricing, expansion, staffing phrasings; accent folding so “café” reaches the keywords as “cafe”) plus the intent contract: every question the site advertises must route and pass the frame check, enforced in the suite. Routing only — no model maths changed, all 96 frozen results unchanged. 711 checks passing. |
Methodology never changes silently: every change lands here and in the Accuracy Centre with its version number.
Worked case studies
LEXUN launched in 2026 and has no client testimonials yet — and we will not invent any. What we can publish today are fully worked, anonymised decision cases: real engine runs whose every number you can reproduce. As real outcomes resolve, their Brier scores will be appended here — whatever they show.
Case 1 — Small business runway. £80,000 cash, £12,000/mo revenue growing 2%/mo (±15% volatility), £18,000/mo costs, 12-month horizon. Forecast: 60–70% probability of maintaining positive cash (PROBABLY SAFE, WATCH IT); top driver monthly costs; the stress scenario falls to about 20%. runway@1.0.0 · seed 564 · rw_52f9a7c3_234 — reproduce it. Outcome: resolves against the frozen criterion at its due date; no outcome yet, so no score is claimed.
Case 2 — Career change. £12,000 buffer, £2,400/mo essential costs, £2,600/mo expected new income after a 6-month ramp (±30% volatility). The engine prices the transition honestly: the buffer question is resolvable, career "success" is not — so only the former is forecast. career@1.1.0 · worked example seed 705 — full walk-through.
Case 3 — Major purchase. £12,000 buffer, £6,000 upfront, £550/mo commitment against £2,600/mo net income and £2,050/mo essentials. The model reports buffer survival and the break-even commitment, and its adversarial challenge flags the assumed running costs as the evidence gap. opportunity@1.0.0 · worked example seed 507 — full walk-through.
Case 4 — An adviser’s file (illustrative; the client and figures are fictional, the engine run is real). An adviser’s client wants to leave employment for a consultancy contract. Inputs as declared with the client: £20,000 buffer (fact — statement seen), £1,800/mo essential costs (fact — 6-month bank average), £2,500/mo expected new income (assumption — one signed letter of intent), 3-month ramp (assumption). The engine returns its band with the fact/assumption split preserved, and the exported Decision Record — inputs, classifications, band, model version, reproducibility id, sign-off line — goes on the client file as evidence of a documented, disciplined process. What it does not do: make the recommendation, or make anyone compliant. The adviser door, stated precisely.
What would falsify us
If our resolved forecasts turn out mis-calibrated, the calibration table will say so — it is computed, not written. We commit to publishing that table whether it flatters us or not. That commitment, not a promise of accuracy, is the product.