One evidence trail from proposal to outcome.
The ledger records what the business spent. It rarely preserves why it decided to: which assumptions were used, what downside was considered, who approved it and whether the assumptions held. LEXUN keeps that record beside the ledger — scenarios compared on the same seed, the downside written down, approval frozen with the forecast, and the outcome scored when reality answers.
The proposals it tests
The cost level that breaks the runway, and the probability cash stays positive with the hire in.
business runway modelThree alternatives on the same model, horizon and seed, each with its own band, downside and breakpoint — frozen with the decision.
compared alternativesRevenue stepped down, costs held: the months of cash in the worst tenth of paths and the assumption that decides them.
business runway modelFit-out cash out, a ramp declared as an assumption with an owner and a review date, the breakpoint the ramp must clear.
business runway modelRepayments as a cost line; the growth the facility needs to be safe, named by the model.
sensitivity and breakpointsEvery result names the smallest change in each driver that moves the published band, so the review meeting knows what to watch.
what would change my mindOne proposal, worked
If we buy the machine now, does the business keep positive cash for the next 12 months?
A £120,000 machine. £260,000 in the bank becomes £140,000 the day after the purchase; running costs rise £1,500 a month to £88,500 against £85,000 of revenue growing 2% a month. Illustrative figures; the shipped engine’s arithmetic, at a fixed seed — and the same model compares leasing or waiting on the same seed.
Probability the business keeps positive cash to month 12
80–90%
probably safe, watch it — a range, never a point, because the inputs are uncertain and the model says so.
- Downside
- Under the stress case (Revenue −25%, growth −2pt, volatility +5pt) survival falls to 20%. That is the number to plan around, not the headline.
- Breakpoint
- The median path reaches the horizon at or above -1.1%/month revenue growth; you stated 2%.
- Biggest lever
- Monthly revenue moves the answer most; a stressed month there swings survival by about 54 points.
- Cash runway
- In the worst tenth of paths the cash lasts 9 months; in the best tenth, 12+.
- The test reality applies
- On the review date, was the business cash balance greater than £0 (no insolvency event, no emergency rescue funding required)?
The figures · cash £140,000 · revenue £85,000 a month · costs £88,500 a month · growth 2% a month · volatility 10% · horizon 12 months. Each is labelled a fact or an assumption before the engine runs.
5,000 paths · runway@1.0.2 · seed 564 · receipt rw_2357c66f_234 · reproduce this exact result · run it on your own figures
What the board gets
- Decision discipline — one question, a checkable outcome and a resolution date agreed before the first number appears.
- Scenario comparison — do nothing, expected, downside, severe downside and the proposer’s case on the same model and seed, so the comparison is like for like.
- Challenge on the record — the strongest case against the conclusion, the assumptions it leans on and the stop conditions, written before approval.
- Approval frozen with the forecast — reviewers, approver and conditions sealed with the band and the success criterion under one hash. Approval never rewrites the forecast.
- Review by date — a checkpoint halfway and a resolution date, in the calendar; assumptions carry owners and review dates.
- Outcome scored — reality compared with the frozen criterion; the Brier score recorded; what the team learned written down for the next proposal.
The workflow, from proposal to outcome
One question with a checkable outcome and a date it resolves on.
LIVEEvery figure a fact or an assumption, with its source, date and owner.
LIVE5,000 seeded paths: the band, the downside, the breakpoint, the lever.
LIVEThe case against, the assumptions it leans on, and what would change the answer.
LIVERecommendation, approval and success criterion frozen and sealed under one hash.
LIVE PILOTReminders for the review date; the outcome scored against the frozen criterion.
LIVELive means on one person’s device today, free. Reviews and approvals across a team are facilitated by LEXUN during the founding pilot; the self-serve shared workspace is planned for Release 2 and labelled so on every page that mentions it.
Why the board can trust it
Same figures, same seed, same answer, on any machine. Every result carries its receipt; anyone can check it.
The engine runs in the browser. Client figures are not uploaded; the optional Copilot is the one exception and says so before you use it.
862 automated checks prove the software behaves as written. No accuracy percentage is published until ten outcomes have resolved in a domain.
LEXUN’s own forecasts are frozen and graded on the public register, misses included.
The detail, and the limits, are in the Trust Centre and the Accuracy Centre.
How it is priced
All of it on one page, with every line labelled: pricing.
Questions finance teams ask
Where does our data go?
The engine runs in the browser and saved decisions are encrypted on the device; nothing is uploaded. Forms and the optional Copilot are the two network components, described on the security page with the processors named. The procurement pack has the architecture, data flows, subprocessors and known limitations.
Can several of us work on one decision?
Not in the software yet. Today one person runs the decision on one device and exports the record; during the founding pilot LEXUN facilitates the review and approval with your team and writes it into the record. Shared workspaces, roles and approvals are planned for Release 2.
What does the board actually receive?
The Decision Record as a paper a board can read — question, assumptions, band, downside, sensitivity, breakpoint, scenarios, challenge, conditions, evidence, model version, receipt, success criterion and review date. The sample is generated from the engine on fictional data.
Is there a contractual SLA, SSO or a private deployment?
Not today, and none is claimed. Enterprise agreements are priced after a pilot; SSO, SCIM and private deployment are planned or by agreement once implemented and tested, and are labelled so on the entitlement matrix.