LEXUN public forecast register Every forecast frozen before the outcome; every resolution scored against a source named in advance. Misses included. https://lexun.co.uk/forecast-feed.xml2026-09-16T18:06:57.193611Z Forecast 011 resolved TRUE: Will UK CPI annual inflation for August 2026, as first published, be between 2.5% and 3.3% inclusive?https://lexun.co.uk/f/011#resolved2026-09-16T18:06:57.193611ZFigure as first published: 3.1%. Brier 0.0144. Forecast 012 resolved TRUE: Will the ONS headline UK unemployment rate for the three months to July 2026, as first published, be between 4.7% and 5.1% inclusive?https://lexun.co.uk/f/012#resolved2026-09-16T18:06:57.165257ZFigure as first published: 4.9%. Brier 0.01. Forecast 011 issued: Will UK CPI annual inflation for August 2026, as first published, be between 2.5% and 3.3% inclusive?https://lexun.co.uk/f/011#issued2026-08-30T17:00:00ZBand 84–92%. Criterion frozen at issue. Forecast 012 issued: Will the ONS headline UK unemployment rate for the three months to July 2026, as first published, be between 4.7% and 5.1% inclusive?https://lexun.co.uk/f/012#issued2026-08-30T17:00:00ZBand 86–94%. Criterion frozen at issue. Forecast 009 resolved TRUE: Will registered company insolvencies in England and Wales for July 2026 be between 1,550 and 2,150 inclusive?https://lexun.co.uk/f/009#resolved2026-08-22T19:50:36.989771ZFigure as first published: 1,931. Brier 0.0225. Forecast 003 resolved FALSE: Will UK CPI annual inflation for July 2026, as first published, be lower than the 2.6% recorded for June 2026?https://lexun.co.uk/f/003#resolved2026-08-19T16:08:14.679024ZFigure as first published: 2.9%. Brier 0.25. Forecast 002 resolved TRUE: Will UK CPI annual inflation for July 2026, as first published, be between 2.2% and 3.0% inclusive?https://lexun.co.uk/f/002#resolved2026-08-19T16:08:00.394373ZFigure as first published: 2.9%. Brier 0.0121. Forecast 004 resolved TRUE: Will the ONS headline UK unemployment rate published on 18 August 2026 be between 4.6% and 5.2% inclusive?https://lexun.co.uk/f/004#resolved2026-08-18T15:29:13.710624ZFigure as first published: 4.9%. Brier 0.01. Forecast 001 issued: Will the Bank of England hold Bank Rate at 3.75% at the September 2026 MPC announcement?https://lexun.co.uk/f/001#issued2026-08-14T00:00:00ZBand 62–78%. Criterion frozen at issue. Forecast 001 withdrawn (reason on record)https://lexun.co.uk/f/001#withdrawn2026-08-14T00:00:00ZIssued and PUBLISHED on lexun.co.uk on 14 August 2026, then withdrawn the same day. The reasoning treated the residual probability as cut risk. The July 2026 MPC minutes record a 6-3 vote with three members — Greene, Mann and Pill — voting to INCREASE Bank Rate to 4%, and the Committee judging infla Forecast 002 issued: Will UK CPI annual inflation for July 2026, as first published, be between 2.2% and 3.0% inclusive?https://lexun.co.uk/f/002#issued2026-08-14T00:00:00ZBand 85–93%. Criterion frozen at issue. Forecast 003 issued: Will UK CPI annual inflation for July 2026, as first published, be lower than the 2.6% recorded for June 2026?https://lexun.co.uk/f/003#issued2026-08-14T00:00:00ZBand 42–58%. Criterion frozen at issue. Forecast 004 issued: Will the ONS headline UK unemployment rate published on 18 August 2026 be between 4.6% and 5.2% inclusive?https://lexun.co.uk/f/004#issued2026-08-14T00:00:00ZBand 86–94%. Criterion frozen at issue. Forecast 005 issued: Will registered company insolvencies in England and Wales for July 2026 be between 1,550 and 2,150 inclusive?https://lexun.co.uk/f/005#issued2026-08-14T00:00:00ZBand 80–90%. Criterion frozen at issue. Forecast 005 withdrawn (reason on record)https://lexun.co.uk/f/005#withdrawn2026-08-14T00:00:00ZIssued and PUBLISHED on lexun.co.uk on 14 August 2026, then withdrawn the same day. The due date was set to 2026-08-18T08:00:00Z, which is 09:00 BST. The Insolvency Service publishes its monthly statistics at 09:30 BST — verified from the GOV.UK content API, which gives first_published_at 2026-07-17 Forecast 006 issued: Will Bank Rate be at or below 3.75% immediately after the November 2026 MPC announcement?https://lexun.co.uk/f/006#issued2026-08-14T00:00:00ZBand 88–96%. Criterion frozen at issue. Forecast 006 withdrawn (reason on record)https://lexun.co.uk/f/006#withdrawn2026-08-14T00:00:00ZIssued and PUBLISHED on lexun.co.uk on 14 August 2026, then withdrawn the same day. It said 88-96% that Bank Rate would not rise by 5 November, on the reasoning that every indicator pointed away from tightening. The July 2026 MPC minutes show three of nine members already voting to hike and risks ti Forecast 007 issued: Will the Bank of England hold Bank Rate at 3.75% at the September 2026 MPC announcement?https://lexun.co.uk/f/007#issued2026-08-14T00:00:00ZBand 70–84%. Criterion frozen at issue. Forecast 008 issued: Will Bank Rate be at or below 3.75% immediately after the November 2026 MPC announcement?https://lexun.co.uk/f/008#issued2026-08-14T00:00:00ZBand 38–56%. Criterion frozen at issue. Forecast 008 withdrawn (reason on record)https://lexun.co.uk/f/008#withdrawn2026-08-14T00:00:00ZIssued 14 August 2026 and withdrawn the same day, before deployment. The due date was 2026-11-05T12:00:00Z. The Bank of England publishes the Monetary Policy Summary and minutes at 12 noon UK, and British Summer Time ends on 25 October 2026, so on 5 November 12:00 UK IS 12:00 UTC. The deadline was t Forecast 009 issued: Will registered company insolvencies in England and Wales for July 2026 be between 1,550 and 2,150 inclusive?https://lexun.co.uk/f/009#issued2026-08-14T00:00:00ZBand 80–90%. Criterion frozen at issue. Forecast 010 issued: Will Bank Rate be at or below 3.75% immediately after the November 2026 MPC announcement?https://lexun.co.uk/f/010#issued2026-08-14T00:00:00ZBand 38–56%. Criterion frozen at issue.