Public forecast 010 · permanent record
Will Bank Rate be at or below 3.75% immediately after the November 2026 MPC announcement?
OPEN — frozen and waiting for reality to answer.
- Question
- Will Bank Rate be at or below 3.75% immediately after the November 2026 MPC announcement?
- Probability band
- 38–56% — issued 2026-08-14, data cut-off 2026-08-14
- Frozen criterion
- Resolves TRUE if, following the Monetary Policy Summary published on 5 November 2026, Bank Rate is 3.75% or lower. Resolves FALSE if Bank Rate is above 3.75%. If the announcement is postponed beyond 30 November 2026 the forecast is marked withdrawn with that reason.
- Resolves by
- 2026-11-05
- Resolution source (named in advance)
- https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/the-interest-rate-bank-rate
- Model
- judgement — reasoning recorded at issue, unchanged since
- Ledger id
lxf_external_010- Supersedes
- forecast 008 — corrections happen by supersession, never by edit
Reasoning recorded at issue — unchanged since, including where it turned out to be wrong: Identical question, band and criterion to lxf_external_008. Only the clock was wrong: the deadline was set to the publication instant itself, because 12 noon UK on 5 November is 12:00 UTC once British Summer Time has ended. The band is carried unchanged and deliberately not revisited. It asks whether Bank Rate avoids a rise across two meetings, 17 September and 5 November. The July 2026 MPC minutes record three of nine members voting to increase Bank Rate to 4%, with the Committee judging inflation risks tilted to the upside, and November carries a Monetary Policy Report — the MPC has historically been more inclined to move at meetings with a full forecast round. Two chances to move with a third of the Committee already wanting to puts this close to even, and it is left below 50% rather than nudged above it.
If ten forecasts were issued at this band, the band claims roughly 4 to 6 of them should come true. Calibration — not certainty — is what the register is scored on.
What would prove this system wrong: a forecast on this register edited after issue, a resolution scored against anything but the source named in advance, or an accuracy claim made before ten outcomes have resolved in a domain. Every one is checkable from the raw ledger — the full falsification list.