Public forecast 005 · permanent record
Will registered company insolvencies in England and Wales for July 2026 be between 1,550 and 2,150 inclusive?
WITHDRAWN — kept on the record with its reason; withdrawals are never deleted.
- Question
- Will registered company insolvencies in England and Wales for July 2026 be between 1,550 and 2,150 inclusive?
- Probability band
- 80–90% — issued 2026-08-14, data cut-off 2026-08-14
- Frozen criterion
- Resolves TRUE if the number of registered company insolvencies in England and Wales in July 2026, as first published by the Insolvency Service in the monthly company insolvency statistics on 18 August 2026, is greater than or equal to 1,550 and less than or equal to 2,150. Scored against the figure as first published.
- Resolves by
- 2026-08-18
- Resolution source (named in advance)
- https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/company-insolvency-statistics-releases
- Model
- judgement — reasoning recorded at issue, unchanged since
- Ledger id
lxf_external_005- Why it was withdrawn
- Issued and PUBLISHED on lexun.co.uk on 14 August 2026, then withdrawn the same day. The due date was set to 2026-08-18T08:00:00Z, which is 09:00 BST. The Insolvency Service publishes its monthly statistics at 09:30 BST — verified from the GOV.UK content API, which gives first_published_at 2026-07-17T09:30:04+01:00 for the June release. The forecast was therefore unresolvable at its own due date, thirty minutes before the only source that can settle it. Due dates are immutable, so this is corrected by supersession rather than edit. Superseded by lxf_external_009, which carries the same question, band and criterion with a reachable due date.
Reasoning recorded at issue — unchanged since, including where it turned out to be wrong: There were 1,845 registered company insolvencies in June 2026 and 1,849 in May 2026, with June 10% below the 2,048 recorded in June 2025. The band spans roughly 16% either side of the two most recent months, which are themselves almost identical. Monthly counts are affected by the number of working days and by administrative processing, so single-month swings of ten per cent are ordinary; swings beyond sixteen per cent are not. This is the entry in the cohort closest to LEXUN's own subject matter, since the runway model exists to forecast whether a business is one of these numbers.
If ten forecasts were issued at this band, the band claims roughly 8 or 9 of them should come true. Calibration — not certainty — is what the register is scored on.
What would prove this system wrong: a forecast on this register edited after issue, a resolution scored against anything but the source named in advance, or an accuracy claim made before ten outcomes have resolved in a domain. Every one is checkable from the raw ledger — the full falsification list.