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LEXUN // Simulate the future
Stress-test a decision before you make it.
Run 5,000 reproducible scenarios on your own numbers. See the probability range, the downside, the breakpoint and the assumptions that matter — privately, in your browser.
- Computed in this browser
- No tracking cookies
- Every result reproducible
- No invented figures
- Not financial advice
Probability, not certainty. No accuracy % is claimed on any model until ten outcomes have resolved — next public score 17 September 2026. The record.
The answer one question, five thousand futures
The answer, the breakpoint, and what moves them.
What you walk away with — a Decision Record
Will this business keep positive cash for the next 12 months?
The answer
Expected case
Alternate futures
The spread
Open the full workingthe other three figures, the breakpoint, change one number, and the four shapes those futures take
Breakpoint
0.1%/mo revenue growth
Above it — the future strengthensBelow it — the future turns fragile
Change the future
Monthly revenue — move it and the whole run againThe shapes those futures take
5,000 paths · runway@1.0.0 · seed 564 · reproduce this exact result
Your run
What moves it — and how you check it
WORKED EXAMPLE · ONE INPUT AT A TIME · SAME SEED
Re-running this simulation independently in your browser to check the receipt reproduces…
See the technical receipt
model runway@1.0.0 · seed 564 (input-derived) · paths 5,000 · reproducibility_id rw_52f9a7c3_234
And it refuses to guess. Ask it something the released models cannot answer and it says Insufficient evidence rather than producing a number. Confidence for this run is stated in the facts above.
How it works — the method, in full
Every input is classified before anything is computed, and the classification is shown rather than assumed. Facts are numbers you gave us, assumptions are numbers you or we estimated, and the prediction is the only thing the engine adds.
| Input | Value | Classified as |
|---|---|---|
| Cash today | £80,000 | FACT |
| Monthly revenue | £12,000 | FACT |
| Monthly costs | £18,000 | FACT |
| Revenue growth | 2%/mo | ASSUMPTION |
| Volatility | 15%/mo | ASSUMPTION |
| Survival band | 60–70% | PREDICTION |
The simulation is a seeded Monte-Carlo run: 5,000 monthly cash paths in antithetic pairs, revenue following a log-normal step about your stated growth rate — the standard model for a quantity that moves in proportion to its own size and cannot go below zero. The seed is derived from your inputs, so the same inputs always produce the same answer — that is what makes the receipt above checkable rather than decorative.
Reference class: 38.4% of UK businesses born 2019 survived five years — ONS Business Demography 2024. Bundled snapshot, labelled as such — not live. Full methodology, including what this model is bad at →
The Decision Reality Loop the loop LEXUN is built around
Every prediction stays open until reality closes it.
Frozen before the answer is known. Scored when reality arrives. Misses published at the same size as the hits.
The public record, today
Editorial forecasts test forecasting discipline, not the decision models — each model earns its own calibration from resolved outcomes. Methodology → · Forecast register →
Your own record, on this device
0 frozen · 0 resolved · 0 ready to score
A different kind of evidence — and it is not accuracy
711 automated engine checks, all passing: determinism, evidence gates, tamper detection, scoring arithmetic. They show the engine behaves as specified — not that a forecast will come true.
It does not prove a forecast came true, and nothing here will use it as if it did. What the checks cover →
Three fair objections, answered
Why not just ask an AI chatbot? A chatbot’s number has no seed, no receipt, no frozen criterion and no scored history — LEXUN’s has all four, and answers fewer questions because of it. The comparison, point by point →
What would prove this system wrong: a register entry edited after issue · a resolution scored against a source not named in advance · an accuracy claim before ten resolved outcomes in a domain. Each is checkable from the raw ledger — the full falsification list →
Anyone can copy this interface in a weekend. A public scoring history becomes harder to replicate as verified outcomes accumulate. Why that is the whole defence →
What LEXUN can model today
Three released models. Everything else is refused, honestly.
The full catalogue, weaknesses stated, lives on the templates page.
Business cash · Career change · Major purchase — each opens its worked example.
Three models, receipts, freeze and score, in your browser. The maths never gets better when you pay.
Every decision kept, exports, PDF reports and the calibration view. A 14-day trial, no card. Checkout appears only once Stripe is switched on, and the page says so.
£49 a seat a month (£490 a year), Enterprise after a pilot. Everything not yet built is labelled planned, not sold.
Who we are
- Founder-built and independent — no advertisers, no data brokers, no outside investors
- A trading name of CA Capital Limited; not connected to any cryptocurrency exchange or similarly-named company
About LEXUN → · Trust & validation → · Companies House record → · Contact →
Private by architecture, not by promise
- Decisions are computed in your browser and stay there — no server copy
- No trackers, no cross-site cookies, no analytics on decision content
- One stated exception: the optional Copilot sends what you type to it — and, when you ask it to explain a result, that result’s band and percentages, never your figures — to Anthropic’s API. Saved decisions never go
- UK GDPR and the Data Protection Act 2018 · an estimate for you to use, never an automated decision about you
Free, in your browser. No account, no card.