Decision Record NSK-2026-005 — Open a Manchester showroom

1. The decision in one paragraph

Northstar proposes a second showroom on Deansgate, Manchester: an £85,000 fixed-price fit-out in month one and £14,500 a month of additional running cost (rent, service charge, rates and two staff). On the facts in the June management accounts and the 1 July bank balance, with revenue growth and volatility declared as assumptions, the engine puts the probability that group cash stays above £0 for the next twelve months at 45–55% if the showroom is opened and no sales from it are counted, against 60–70% if it is not opened. If Manchester ramps as Leeds did in its first year, the band recovers to 55–65% — but that ramp is an assumption, and the record treats it as one.

2. Evidence: what was known, and what was assumed

Each input is classified as a fact (a document the organisation holds) or an assumption (a belief with an owner and an expiry). The engine prices the difference: 3 of the 5 core evidence inputs are facts (horizon and optional fields not counted); 2 are assumptions.

Facts entered

cashToday £310,000 · monthlyRevenue £210,000 · monthlyCosts £210,500 (including the £14,500 showroom cost) · horizon 12 months

Assumptions entered

revenue growth 0.8% a month · revenue volatility 18% a month · cost growth 0.3% a month · committed: −£85,000 in month 1

3. Scenarios compared

Same model, same seed (2202), so the only differences between rows are the inputs. The expected row is what the board is asked to approve; moving a scenario never changes it.

4. What moves the answer

5. The independent challenge

Challenger: Elena Marsh, Fractional CFO (external), 10 July 2026. Conclusion: Proceed only if the lease break at 24 months is retained and the fit-out is fixed price

Strongest case against

A second showroom doubles fixed cost in a business whose revenue volatility is 18% a month. The expected case without uplift keeps positive cash, but the end-cash median falls sharply, which removes the buffer that absorbs a bad quarter. If Manchester ramps like Leeds did the decision is comfortable; if it ramps at half the rate the business is running near its floor by spring.

Missing evidence

No Manchester-specific demand evidence; the Leeds comparator is one showroom in one year.

Optimistic assumptions

Ramp to £22,000 a month by month 5; No cannibalisation of Leeds enquiries

Downside

Severe downside scenario materially reduces the survival probability — see Scenario Lab.

Model disagreement

Heuristic cross-check 3 points below the Monte Carlo — not material.

Reversibility

Low for 24 months (lease); fit-out is sunk.

Cost of delay

Moderate — the landlord's offer lapses in October; a January opening loses the autumn season.

Early warning signals

Manchester enquiries below 40 a month by month 3; Group cash below £220,000 at any month end

Conditions that should stop the decision

Fit-out quote not fixed; Lease break removed

6. Review and approval record

Approval

Approved by Tom Whitfield, Managing Director on 21 July 2026

Conditions

Lease break at 24 months retained; Fit-out contract fixed price, signed before works

Sequence

Sequential — reviews before approval

Conflict of interest

None declared

The approval records the organisation’s decision about the evidence available on 21 July 2026. It does not alter the forecast: the band approved is the band above.

7. The frozen record

Sealed

21 July 2026 by Priya Nair, Finance Director · version 1

Record hash (SHA-256)

774dd1311369e2a2fe8abe8206328e7fa05aab1cd5d7aef8318a00e08cb2a038

Engine receipt

rw_28504f0f_89a — runway@1.0.0 on core 1.1.0, seed 2202, 5,000 paths, input hash 28504f0f

Data version

Management accounts Jun-2026; bank 2026-07-01; quote Ridley v2

Action selected

Sign the Deansgate lease and the fixed-price fit-out contract; open September 2026

Success criterion

Group cash balance above £0 at every month end to 21 July 2027, with no emergency funding

Named resolution source

Northstar bank statements and management accounts, reviewed by Hartley & Co

Resolution date

21 July 2027

Sealed fields: id, question, inputs, classifications, evidence, model, dataVersion, seed, probability, band, confidence, scenarioSelected, challenge, reviews, approval, action, successCriterion, resolutionSource, resolutionDate, engineReceipt. A correction creates version 2 naming version 1 as superseded; nothing in a frozen record is edited in place. Anyone holding the inputs and the seed can reproduce the engine receipt at lexun.co.uk/verify.

8. Monitoring plan

Checkpoints: 21 October 2026 (first), then quarterly to the resolution date. At 21 July 2027 the owner is asked for the bank statements and management accounts named above; reality is compared with the frozen criterion; the outcome is recorded write-once; the forecast is Brier-scored against a naive baseline; and why reality differed is written in words — including which assumption mattered.

9. Decision timeline

10. Boundaries

This paper is decision intelligence, not financial, legal, tax or investment advice. The probability band is a statement about a released model on stated inputs; its known weaknesses are published: revenue follows a log-normal multiplicative step about the stated growth rate, costs grow at a fixed rate, committed amounts are exact, there is no seasonality and no correlation between revenue and cost shocks, and a sales ramp is modelled as fixed committed inflows. No accuracy percentage is claimed for the model until ten outcomes have resolved in its domain. Northstar Kitchens Ltd is a fictional company created to demonstrate the record; no real customer, person or forecast appears in this paper.

Generated from demonstration data by LEXUN · lexun.co.uk/board-report · CA Capital Limited, company number 10848369.