{
  "generated_from": "platform/lexun-core.js SOURCE_REGISTRY + forecast-ledger.json outcomes",
  "coverage_note": "The coverage matrix lists every figure LEXUN actually holds; the blind-spot register lists what it lacks, classified honestly. Neither list ever includes data the platform does not really have.",
  "architecture": "Static, local-first site. There are no live data connectors, no server-side ingestion and no scheduled jobs; every reference figure is a bundled snapshot with its publication and retrieval dates stated. A source described as live here would be fabricated, so none is.",
  "live_connectors": 0,
  "geographic_coverage": {
    "evidence_countries": [
      "GB"
    ],
    "statement": "Verified evidence currently covers the United Kingdom only. Place search on the Earth surface covers thousands of place names; those are names, not evidence, and the two are never the same claim. Decisions recorded for other countries have their geography stored and the UK reference figures withheld rather than passed off as relevant."
  },
  "tiers": {
    "1": "official statistics / regulator / government department",
    "2": "recognised research institution",
    "3": "reputable industry dataset or established reporting",
    "4": "secondary reporting — requires corroboration"
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "id": "boe-bank-rate-2026",
      "publisher": "Bank of England",
      "title": "Official Bank Rate history — full change series, 1975 to date",
      "url": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/boeapps/database/Bank-Rate.asp",
      "published": "maintained series; snapshot of the page as retrieved",
      "retrieved": "2026-08-27",
      "jurisdiction": "UK",
      "licence": "Bank of England Database terms of use; attribution required",
      "reliabilityClass": "official-statistics",
      "tier": 1,
      "domain": "monetary-policy",
      "coverage": "United Kingdom",
      "updateFrequency": "on MPC decisions",
      "connected": false,
      "notes": "Bundled snapshot of the full official rate-change history (258 observations, 1975-01-20 to 2025-12-18), shipped at /data/boe-bank-rate.json with six anchor values cross-checked before bundling. Reference context only: no released model takes the rate as an input, and the series says where the rate has been, never where it will go.",
      "figures": [
        {
          "key": "bank-rate-history",
          "label": "Official Bank Rate, every change 1975 to date",
          "value": 258,
          "unit": "observations",
          "cohort": "UK monetary policy, 1975-2025"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ons-cpi-annual-2026",
      "publisher": "Office for National Statistics (UK)",
      "title": "CPI annual rate, all items (D7G7, MM23) — yearly averages 1989-2025",
      "url": "https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/timeseries/d7g7/mm23",
      "published": "2026-08-19",
      "retrieved": "2026-08-27",
      "jurisdiction": "UK",
      "licence": "Open Government Licence v3.0",
      "reliabilityClass": "official-statistics",
      "tier": 1,
      "domain": "inflation",
      "coverage": "United Kingdom",
      "updateFrequency": "monthly releases; yearly values annual",
      "connected": false,
      "notes": "Bundled snapshot of 37 yearly values at /data/ons-cpi-annual.json, six anchors cross-checked before bundling. CURRENT VINTAGE ONLY — revisions included, original first-published values not preserved; the file states this limitation itself. Reference context only: no released model takes inflation as an input.",
      "figures": [
        {
          "key": "cpi-annual-history",
          "label": "CPI annual rate, yearly averages 1989-2025",
          "value": 37,
          "unit": "observations",
          "cohort": "UK, all items, D7G7"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ons-business-demography-2024",
      "publisher": "Office for National Statistics (UK)",
      "title": "Business demography, UK: 2024",
      "url": "https://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade/business/activitysizeandlocation/bulletins/businessdemography/2024",
      "published": "2025-11-20",
      "retrieved": "2026-07-30",
      "jurisdiction": "UK",
      "licence": "Open Government Licence v3.0",
      "reliabilityClass": "official-statistics",
      "tier": 1,
      "domain": "business-demography",
      "coverage": "United Kingdom",
      "updateFrequency": "annual",
      "connected": false,
      "notes": "Bundled snapshot. 1-year survival rate was NOT captured in this snapshot; the platform states this gap rather than estimating it.",
      "figures": [
        {
          "key": "uk-5yr-survival",
          "label": "Five-year survival rate, UK businesses born 2019",
          "value": 0.384,
          "unit": "proportion",
          "cohort": "2019 births measured to 2024"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "indeed-hiringlab-ons-2026",
      "publisher": "Indeed Hiring Lab (citing ONS)",
      "title": "Job Switching in the UK: Who Stays Put, and Who Moves On?",
      "url": "https://www.hiringlab.org/uk/blog/2026/03/04/job-switching-in-the-uk-who-stays-put-and-who-moves-on/",
      "published": "2026-03-04",
      "retrieved": "2026-07-27",
      "jurisdiction": "UK",
      "licence": "publisher terms",
      "reliabilityClass": "industry",
      "tier": 3,
      "domain": "labour-market",
      "coverage": "United Kingdom",
      "updateFrequency": "ad hoc",
      "connected": false,
      "notes": "Context figure only. Indeed-platform switching rates skew high (active seekers). No defensible base rate for career-change SUCCESS exists; the career model states this gap explicitly.",
      "figures": [
        {
          "key": "uk-job-changers-2025",
          "label": "UK workers who changed jobs in 2025 (ONS, as reported)",
          "value": 2900000,
          "unit": "people",
          "cohort": "2025 calendar year"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "fca-financial-lives-2024",
      "publisher": "Financial Conduct Authority (UK)",
      "title": "Financial Lives 2024 survey — key findings",
      "url": "https://www.fca.org.uk/publication/financial-lives/financial-lives-survey-2024-key-findings.pdf",
      "published": "2025-05-16",
      "retrieved": "2026-07-30",
      "jurisdiction": "UK",
      "licence": "Open Government Licence v3.0",
      "reliabilityClass": "official-survey",
      "tier": 1,
      "domain": "household-finance",
      "coverage": "United Kingdom adults",
      "updateFrequency": "biennial",
      "connected": false,
      "notes": "Context figures only — environment, not a base rate for any purchase outcome. \"Low financial resilience\" = low savings, heavily burdened by bills/credit, or missed bills in 3+ of last 6 months (FCA definition).",
      "figures": [
        {
          "key": "uk-low-financial-resilience-2024",
          "label": "UK adults with low financial resilience, May 2024",
          "value": 13100000,
          "unit": "people",
          "cohort": "May 2024 survey; 24% of UK adults"
        },
        {
          "key": "uk-limited-savings-buffer-2024",
          "label": "UK adults who could not cover living expenses for 3+ months if main household income were lost",
          "value": 0.42,
          "unit": "proportion",
          "cohort": "May 2024 survey"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "coverage_matrix": [
    {
      "domain": "monetary-policy",
      "figure": "bank-rate-history",
      "label": "Official Bank Rate, every change 1975 to date",
      "geography": "United Kingdom",
      "cohort": "UK monetary policy, 1975-2025",
      "authority_tier": 1,
      "published": "maintained series; snapshot of the page as retrieved",
      "retrieved": "2026-08-27",
      "update_frequency": "on MPC decisions",
      "freshness": "bundled snapshot — refreshed only by a release",
      "used_by": "Rate regimes (Accuracy Centre) — reference context, not a model input"
    },
    {
      "domain": "inflation",
      "figure": "cpi-annual-history",
      "label": "CPI annual rate, yearly averages 1989-2025",
      "geography": "United Kingdom",
      "cohort": "UK, all items, D7G7",
      "authority_tier": 1,
      "published": "2026-08-19",
      "retrieved": "2026-08-27",
      "update_frequency": "monthly releases; yearly values annual",
      "freshness": "bundled snapshot — refreshed only by a release",
      "used_by": "Rate & inflation context (Accuracy Centre) — reference context, not a model input"
    },
    {
      "domain": "business-demography",
      "figure": "uk-5yr-survival",
      "label": "Five-year survival rate, UK businesses born 2019",
      "geography": "United Kingdom",
      "cohort": "2019 births measured to 2024",
      "authority_tier": 1,
      "published": "2025-11-20",
      "retrieved": "2026-07-30",
      "update_frequency": "annual",
      "freshness": "bundled snapshot — refreshed only by a release",
      "used_by": "runway outside view"
    },
    {
      "domain": "labour-market",
      "figure": "uk-job-changers-2025",
      "label": "UK workers who changed jobs in 2025 (ONS, as reported)",
      "geography": "United Kingdom",
      "cohort": "2025 calendar year",
      "authority_tier": 3,
      "published": "2026-03-04",
      "retrieved": "2026-07-27",
      "update_frequency": "ad hoc",
      "freshness": "bundled snapshot — refreshed only by a release",
      "used_by": "career outside view"
    },
    {
      "domain": "household-finance",
      "figure": "uk-low-financial-resilience-2024",
      "label": "UK adults with low financial resilience, May 2024",
      "geography": "United Kingdom adults",
      "cohort": "May 2024 survey; 24% of UK adults",
      "authority_tier": 1,
      "published": "2025-05-16",
      "retrieved": "2026-07-30",
      "update_frequency": "biennial",
      "freshness": "bundled snapshot — refreshed only by a release",
      "used_by": "purchase outside view"
    },
    {
      "domain": "household-finance",
      "figure": "uk-limited-savings-buffer-2024",
      "label": "UK adults who could not cover living expenses for 3+ months if main household income were lost",
      "geography": "United Kingdom adults",
      "cohort": "May 2024 survey",
      "authority_tier": 1,
      "published": "2025-05-16",
      "retrieved": "2026-07-30",
      "update_frequency": "biennial",
      "freshness": "bundled snapshot — refreshed only by a release",
      "used_by": "purchase outside view"
    }
  ],
  "blind_spot_register": [
    {
      "gap": "UK business 1-year survival rate",
      "classification": "discoverable and open",
      "why_missing": "not captured in the bundled ONS snapshot; the platform states the gap on-page rather than estimating it",
      "acquisition_path": "refresh the ONS Business Demography snapshot in a future release"
    },
    {
      "gap": "Career-change SUCCESS base rate",
      "classification": "not worth acquiring as currently framed",
      "why_missing": "no defensible source exists — \"success\" is not a resolvable criterion; the career model states this explicitly",
      "acquisition_path": "none until a resolvable criterion and a governed longitudinal source exist"
    },
    {
      "gap": "Individual-level historical case libraries (businesses, careers, purchases)",
      "classification": "restricted / personally sensitive",
      "why_missing": "individual records cannot lawfully be fabricated from aggregates, and no consented case network exists",
      "acquisition_path": "a consented outcome network — staged behind the backend architecture decision"
    },
    {
      "gap": "Live time series of any kind (rates, prices, labour, housing)",
      "classification": "unavailable in the current architecture",
      "why_missing": "static local-first site: no server-side runtime, ingestion, scheduling or credentials",
      "acquisition_path": "the deliberate backend fork recorded in the operator task sheet"
    },
    {
      "gap": "Regime indicators beyond the figures the register itself resolved",
      "classification": "discoverable and open",
      "why_missing": "only register-resolved figures carry the provenance the surfaces demand (frozen source, first-published figure)",
      "acquisition_path": "each future resolved forecast adds one verified, dated regime observation"
    },
    {
      "gap": "Backfilled historical vintages (original releases plus revisions)",
      "classification": "discoverable and open",
      "why_missing": "no point-in-time store exists to hold vintages; the ledger preserves vintages only for its own forecasts",
      "acquisition_path": "bitemporal storage — part of the same backend decision"
    }
  ],
  "resolved_outcome_sources": [
    {
      "forecast_id": "lxf_external_002",
      "figure": "2.9%",
      "url": "https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/july2026",
      "source_published_at": "2026-08-19T06:00:00Z",
      "resolved_at": "2026-08-19T16:08:00.394373Z"
    },
    {
      "forecast_id": "lxf_external_003",
      "figure": "2.9%",
      "url": "https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/july2026",
      "source_published_at": "2026-08-19T06:00:00Z",
      "resolved_at": "2026-08-19T16:08:14.679024Z"
    },
    {
      "forecast_id": "lxf_external_004",
      "figure": "4.9%",
      "url": "https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/august2026",
      "source_published_at": "2026-08-18T06:00:00Z",
      "resolved_at": "2026-08-18T15:29:13.710624Z"
    },
    {
      "forecast_id": "lxf_external_009",
      "figure": "1,931",
      "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/company-insolvencies-july-2026/commentary-company-insolvency-statistics-july-2026",
      "source_published_at": "2026-08-18T08:30:00Z",
      "resolved_at": "2026-08-22T19:50:36.989771Z"
    },
    {
      "forecast_id": "lxf_external_011",
      "figure": "3.1%",
      "url": "https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/august2026",
      "source_published_at": "2026-09-16T06:00:00Z",
      "resolved_at": "2026-09-16T18:06:57.193611Z"
    },
    {
      "forecast_id": "lxf_external_012",
      "figure": "4.9%",
      "url": "https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/september2026",
      "source_published_at": "2026-09-15T06:00:00Z",
      "resolved_at": "2026-09-16T18:06:57.165257Z"
    }
  ]
}